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Published research,
live and on paper

One research programme you can read, run and check. Two headline results are reproduced live by the engine to a difference of 0.000; the rest is set to be read, not skimmed.

Two results, reproduced live to Δ 0.000
Entronomics book cover
THE BOOK
Entronomics
A General Theory of Self-Learning Adaptive Economies
Avishek Bhandari · Forthcoming

A general theory of self-learning adaptive economies. The working papers below are its scholarly backbone.

LIVE · REPRODUCIBLEResults the engine regenerates on live data. No journal page can do this.
LIVE · REPRODUCIBLEecon.EM

Scale-Ordered Contagion: A Spectral Theory of Heterogeneous Information Adaptation in Financial Networks

Avishek Bhandari, Ipsita Parida

Develops the Scale-Ordered Contagion Hypothesis (SOCH): the wavelet scale at which directed transfer entropy peaks between two markets is set by the slower market's adaptation rate. Building on a heterogeneous-agents reading in which advanced economies adapt quickly and emerging economies slowly, both the originating and the receiving market filter a shock, and the slower of the two sets the horizon over which contagion is felt most strongly. This yields three falsifiable predictions, jointly the SOCH: horizon ordering, cross-directional shape symmetry, and directional magnitude asymmetry. The theory is turned into an estimator that recovers each market's speed of adaptation, and taken to G20 equity markets over 2006 to 2026.

✓ per-scale Δ 0.000SOCH-C p = 0.105, not significant
LIVE · REPRODUCIBLEecon.GN

What Drives Contagion? Identifying and Attributing Cross-Border Transmission Mechanisms

Avishek Bhandari, Ipsita Parida, Hitesh Kumar Sahu

A two-stage framework for cross-border financial contagion. Stage one uses wavelet-quantile transfer entropy across time-scales and lower, median and upper-tail quantiles to detect significant directional links. Stage two attributes each link to one of five channels (Trade, Financial, Geopolitical, Behavioural, Monetary Policy) using instrumental-variables estimation, LASSO instrument selection, local projections across horizons, and sensitivity bounds, across 18 G20 equity markets over eight crisis sub-periods from January 2006 to March 2026.

✓ Table 5 to 0.000 pp
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THE BOUNDED AGENT · THE CANON NESTED
Foundations: Equilibrium as a Limit

The programme's first principle. The classical competitive canon, Walrasian demand, Nash equilibrium, general equilibrium and geometric discounting, is recovered exactly as the infinite-capacity limit of a finite-information agent. These manuscripts lay the microfoundation the rest of the corpus stands on, so they open the treatise.

WORKING PAPER19 pp

General Equilibrium in Hilbert Space: Competitive Equilibrium as an Orthogonal Projection of the Adaptive State

Avishek Bhandari

What is a market equilibrium, the state where every plan agrees and nothing moves? This paper argues it is the still shadow of a restless, adaptive economy. By placing the whole economic state, agents, firms, machines, and prices, in a single geometric space where closeness means statistical correlation, it shows that competitive equilibrium is the projection of the economy onto its unchanging part, and the living economy is what is left over. One geometric step recovers three classical ideas at once: equilibrium, rational expectations, and the welfare benchmark. The leftover part measures an economy's ignorance and the information an agent must pay to describe it. The work is theory, with a worked example for illustration and no empirical test, careful that a unique projection is not a determinate equilibrium.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER22 pp

Discounting at Finite Capacity: Micro-Founding Geometric Discounting: and the Compressed Euler Equation

Avishek Bhandari

Why do people value the present over the future? Economics assumes this impatience without explaining it. This paper derives it from one idea: people process information at a limited rate. To plan for a future payoff you must keep pace with the novelty in your income, and spreading limited attention across the horizons ahead produces a steady discount on the future, one that steepens with both how much novelty the income generates and how costly attention is. Impatience is thus the price of a novel future met by a finite mind, and it disappears when the world is predictable or attention is unlimited. The same idea recasts present bias, the pull toward the near term, as a novelty rate not yet learned, and explains why consumption reacts only gradually and smoothly to income surprises. The account concerns what generates discounting and what the data can pin down, not forecasting, and rests on a reproducible numerical illustration, not an empirical test.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER16 pp

Capacity-Constrained Reinforcement Learning: Policy Compression, Generalisation, and the Recovery of Optimal Control in the Infinite-Rate Limit

Avishek Bhandari

Any agent that learns to act faces a bandwidth limit: it can only carry so much about the world into each decision, so its behaviour is a lossy summary of what it sees. This paper treats that information budget as a scarce resource and shows what optimal learning becomes once it is priced. Four familiar objects, the optimal policy, the state representation, the learning dynamics, and the generalisation gap, turn out to be one family of rate-versus-fidelity trade-offs, each collapsing to the textbook version when information is free. A small, fully reproducible tabular study illustrates each result. The results are shown for finite tabular problems and Gaussian representations, and one limit is firm: more capacity buys sharper control, never foresight of a genuinely random world.

Read abstract →In preparation
arXiv · openecon.TH

Equilibrium as a Limit: The Competitive Canon Nested in an Adaptive, Information-Theoretic Economy

Avishek Bhandari

The competitive equilibrium of general equilibrium theory exists as a fixed point and is, by the theory's own results on aggregate excess demand, in general silent on whether that fixed point is unique, stable, or attained. This paper takes the economy to be not a configuration to be solved for but a process to be recovered, an asymptotically mean stationary information source carrying a partially identified operator of statistical dependence, populated by agents that are finite-capacity information channels. Within this adaptive order the competitive, rational expectations equilibrium is recovered exactly, as a joint limit taken along an explicit scaling path. Three parameter limits and two fixed-point conditions deliver it, the entropy rate falls to zero, agent channel capacity diverges, selection intensity grows infinitely sharp, adaptive learning reaches its expectationally stable rest point, and the recovered structure ceases to coevolve. At that corner the limiting object satisfies the axioms of the canon and its rest state is a Walrasian equilibrium, away from it the adaptive economy is a strict generalisation, carrying a positive entropy rate and a recovered dependence structure that the equilibrium primitive cannot express. We give the nesting as a theorem, establish the result by result correspondence with existence, with the Sonnenschein Mantel Debreu indeterminacy, and with the regular economies recovery, and characterise exactly what the equilibrium limit erases.

WORKING PAPER27 pp

Choice at Finite Capacity: The Bounded Agent as an Information Channel and the Recovery of Walrasian Demand

Avishek Bhandari

Standard economics assumes the shopper is a flawless calculator who always buys the best basket it can afford. This paper models the shopper instead as a limited information channel: it compresses its world to the detail its attention affords, so its choice is a probability distribution, not a single basket. The textbook consumer returns exactly as the unlimited-attention limit, while at the zero-attention end the shopper falls back on pure habit. The central result is about how this shopper's demand responds to price changes. That pattern of responses is just a rescaling of how the shopper's own choices vary and move together, so it comes out symmetric. And provided the budget really binds, because the shopper wants more than it can afford, raising a good's own price lowers demand for it once buying power is held fixed. So the downward pull comes from the budget and from compression, not from rationality. The framework also covers an artificial agent running a limited-capacity policy. A two-good case is worked out fully in closed form; the paper is theoretical and offers no empirical test.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER25 pp

Strategic Interaction under Bounded Capacity: Quantal Response, Potential, and the Recovery of Nash Equilibrium

Avishek Bhandari

Standard game theory assumes players optimise perfectly. This paper rebuilds it on a player of finite information capacity, whose best response softly favours better actions. That response is the familiar logit rule, so equilibrium becomes the logit quantal response equilibrium, and Nash equilibrium reappears in the unlimited-capacity limit; potential games add a principled equilibrium selection valid only within that class. The gain is a discipline for network games. When the interaction network is inferred from how players co-move rather than assumed, only its leading eigenvalue and, for complements, its centrality ranking are firmly pinned. The leading direction can be targeted; the individual link and the key player cannot, and are refused. The results are theoretical, shown by a closed-form pair of networks that look identical yet reverse every link.

Read abstract →In preparation
THE RECOVERED OPERATOR · PARTIAL IDENTIFICATION
Identification: What Comovement Recovers

The epistemic spine. From comovement alone the dependence operator is only partly identified, and a certification gate says exactly what may be claimed: strong, proxy, or unidentified. Estimation, inference, drift tracking, the topology that survives ambiguity, and the recovery-equivalence class live here.

WORKING PAPER10 pp

Recovery Equivalence Theory: The structure of non-identification, and decision over the equivalence class

Avishek Bhandari

Reconstructing the network of dependence between economic units from how they move together rarely singles out one structure. This note builds the theory of that ambiguity. It characterises the recovery equivalence class, the set of structures consistent with a given observation, and computes the size of the indeterminacy exactly. The quantities the data fix are precisely the invariants that survive it, which turns a three-way reading of identification, firmly identified, identified only up to a calibration constant, or beyond what the data can fix, from a convention into a theorem. Non-identification is given a closed-form measure, the class varies continuously with the observation except where the leading spectral gap closes, and a confidence-weighted decision rule nests outright refusal and point-identified action as its two limits, with worst-case regret that vanishes as the data resolve more of the structure.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER28 pp

Recovering a Drifting Dependence Operator: Effective Sample Size, Recursive Re-Recovery: and a Scale-Indexed Certification Gate

Avishek Bhandari

We watch financial markets only through how their returns move together, yet we want the hidden web of dependence behind them. This paper shows how much of that web the data reveal: the dominant direction and how concentrated it is, but not the weight of any single link. It builds a method for records that are serially correlated, drift over time, and span several horizons: correlation shrinks the usable sample, fine horizons reveal structure coarse ones miss, a past-only memory tracks the drift, and directional links are screened against a strict noise benchmark. A study of eighteen global equity indices across three market regimes illustrates the method, not those episodes. One theme recurs: structure can be recovered sharply yet remain nearly impossible to forecast, and nothing here is offered as a forecast.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER18 pp

The Shape that Survives: Topological Invariants of Equilibrium under Observational Equivalence

Avishek Bhandari

Recovering an economy's structure from data usually pins down only part of it. Which features of its equilibria, its self-reproducing states, survive that ambiguity? The economy's dominant strength and direction of dependence are firmly pinned down, but the individual links between its parts are not. The answer is an asymmetry. The global shape of the set of equilibria, captured by topological quantities such as the fixed-point index sum and the Euler characteristic, is the same for every structure the data cannot tell apart. As a result, in the typical case the number of equilibria is forced to be odd, even where the links are unidentified. The exact count, and where each equilibrium sits, are not pinned down. A coda reads the Chichilnisky impossibility of fair preference aggregation as a fact about the shape of the preference space. Counting equilibria is not the same as determining which one the economy reaches, and nothing here is a forecast; a reproducible, illustrative worked example is included.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER23 pp

The Partial Identification of a Dependence Operator: What an Observed Spectrum Recovers from Economic Comovement

Avishek Bhandari

How much can you learn about the hidden web of dependence in an economy by watching its measured series move together? This paper answers precisely. It shows that the pattern of comovement fixes a structure only up to a family of look-alikes, and that a quantity is pinned down exactly when it survives every member of that family. This test sorts every claim into firmly fixed, fixed only after a free constant is chosen, or open, with an ambiguity of measurable size that shrinks as data accumulate. In a network-game example, the data recover two aggregate channels and the shared adjustment speed but not the individual links. A worked example illustrates the theory rather than testing it, and the dependence measured is statistical, not a claim about the economy's stability.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER30 pp

Estimation and Inference for a Partially Identified: Dependence Operator

Avishek Bhandari

How much of an economy's hidden web of influence can data pin down, and how much stays uncertain? This paper treats the economy as a source whose stationary, differenced series reveal a directed dependence network only in part: its spectrum and dominant comovement are firmly fixed, a propagation multiplier only once a damping constant is chosen, and any single link's direction not at all. It supplies estimators with error bars for what is firmly fixed, a factor-corrected rule for how many patterns a panel resolves and how sharply, coverage-valid ranges for what is only partly fixed, and a calibrated test for directed flow. It draws a line: forecastability is capped by the source's novelty, so structure can be recovered sharply yet not forecast, and no estimate is a forecast.

Read abstract →In preparation
SPECTRAL CONCENTRATION · REPRODUCED LIVE
Crisis, Contagion & the Fragility Edge

Where the operator meets the crash. Spectral concentration onto one dominant mode, the fragility edge, rational bubbles, disaster pricing, transcritical collapse and cross-border contagion. The two live-reproducible papers are the empirical anchor of this theme; they are featured in the Live spotlight above.

Live in this theme: Scale-Ordered Contagion · What Drives Contagion?, reproduced live; see the spotlight ↑
WORKING PAPER58 pp

Rational Bubbles at the Spectral Edge: An Operator-Spectral Theory of Fragility, Identification, and Finite-Sample Certification

Avishek Bhandari

When markets move more and more in lockstep, are they drifting towards the point where a price bubble becomes possible, and can that drift be measured before the crossing? This paper joins two long-separate ideas, that a rational bubble is a price outgrowing its dividends and that a crisis threshold can be read off the strength of a market's single dominant factor, onto one object recovered from the data: a summary of how asset returns move together, paired with a discount rate. We call this crossing point the fragility edge and show it plays three roles at once. A stated discipline says what the data support: the edge firmly, with a margin of error; whether a bubble exists, only roughly; which asset carries it, not at all. Across eighteen global equity indices from 2004 to 2024, that dominant factor strengthens in every documented crisis, the market collapsing from about six to about four independent factors; once the discount is set so that calm markets sit at the edge, this strength crosses it in crisis. These readings coincide with crises, not forecasts.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER13 pp

An Adaptive Macro-Network Model: A Co-evolving Recovered Dependence Operator with Bounded-Rational Learning

Avishek Bhandari

Economists usually model the economy as a fixed network of links between sectors. This paper lets that network become a moving part: participants choose how much exposure to take on, guided by a rule that reflects their limited capacity to process information, and the web of dependence they build then shapes their own rewards. As the market's price for shared risk falls, learning drives the system through a gradual collapse of diversity, with a single hub coming to dominate; the change is smooth, with no sudden jump and no point of no return. One discipline runs throughout: the paper acts only on what daily stock-market data can actually recover, never on the finer question of which sector drives which, which those data cannot pin down. A pre-registered test on four real stock-market datasets finds that how concentrated the network has become marks crises as they happen but does not forecast them even one step ahead. Recovering the structure of the system is not the same as predicting returns.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER10 pp

Pricing Network Concentration as a Disaster-State Factor: A Partially Identified Pricing Kernel with a Falsifiable Closure

Avishek Bhandari

When financial markets all move together, crowding into a single shared mode, does that concentration of risk carry a price? This paper builds a rare-disaster model of asset prices in which the thing being priced is the unexpected change in how tightly stock-index returns move together, a concentration measure drawn from the pattern of dependence among them. The price this factor should command is fixed by theory rather than fitted to the data, so the claim can be tested and rejected. In a calibrated economy the test works as intended. Across eighteen global equity indices it rejects: the market prices concentration with the opposite sign to the disaster story, so the model is falsified on this panel. The result is reported as a diagnostic finding, not a pricing success: it is a disagreement about sign, it describes markets at the same moment rather than predicting them, and the model explains little of how average returns differ from one market to the next.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER12 pp

A Rare-Disaster Wavelet State: Multiscale Disaster Regimes with a Certification Boundary

Avishek Bhandari

Why can a rare economic disaster explain the large reward investors demand for holding stocks, yet leave us unable to say how likely that disaster is or how bad it would be? This paper separates what the data can and cannot recover inside the disaster channel. Using a scale-by-scale wavelet decomposition of stock returns, it recovers the long-memory of returns, a classifier that marks calm versus turbulent regimes, and a law linking memory to volatility across scales. It shows the disaster's probability and size are not separately recoverable: many very different pairs match the same premium, their product varying almost sixteenfold. A pre-registered test shows the disaster signal forecasts volatility, not returns. It dates regimes; it does not lead them.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER21 pp

The Empirical Signatures of Crisis: Spectral and Directed Diagnostics of a: Recovered Dependence Operator

Avishek Bhandari

When an economy tips from calm into crisis, what changes? This paper argues that what changes is the web of statistical dependence among its assets: their movements bunch together onto a single dominant pattern, transmission between them turns more one-way, and the system as a whole becomes harder to predict. Working from the joint day-to-day movement of returns, never from raw price levels, the paper recovers a map of that dependence and grades three signatures of crisis by how firmly the data pin each one down. Of the three, the concentration of movement is the one the data pin down firmly. The one-way flow shows up only as a broad contrast between calm and crisis, and the paper declines to name the direction of any single link, because the data cannot settle it. These signatures diagnose a crisis as it happens rather than forecast it: knowing today's pattern of joint movement does not reduce the forecasting error that no method can escape. A worked example across a calm period, the 2008 crisis, and the pandemic shows the method in action.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER24 pp

The Finite-Capacity Adaptive Market: Dependence Collapse as a Transcritical Transition

Avishek Bhandari

Why do calm markets sometimes tip suddenly into crisis? This paper models a market as bounded agents, each a limited information channel choosing how strongly to couple to others; the cost of coupling is derived from information theory, not assumed. As the market's price on coupling drifts down, dependence concentrates onto a single centre, and at a threshold the diversified structure collapses in a smooth, jump-free transition, removing the diversity that cushions shocks. The paper proves this collapse and shows it in a reproducible example. It reports only what the data pin down: the concentration and the threshold's construction are firm, the exact level is a range, and individual links stay unnamed. The collapse marks a crisis as it happens; whether it forecasts one is left for out-of-sample tests.

Read abstract →In preparation
THE PERRON EIGENRAY · OPERATOR DRIFT
Growth, Production & Technology

The long run read off the production operator. Balanced growth as a Perron eigenray and turnpike, technology as the operator's drift, the identification limits on total factor productivity, the firm boundary as a channel comparison, growth under intelligent machines, and long-memory business cycles.

WORKING PAPER18 pp

Long-Memory Business Cycles: A Fractionally Integrated Equilibrium Model with an Irreducible Forecast Floor

Avishek Bhandari

Standard business-cycle models are driven by shocks that fade within a few years. Real output does not behave that way. A shock lingers for decades, decaying slowly, a property called long memory. This paper builds an equilibrium model whose driver has genuine long memory and asks what the usual short-memory setups structurally cannot do. Long memory reshapes how shocks propagate, leaves the model with a single well-defined equilibrium, and puts the best possible forecast permanently out of reach for any fixed-size model. In United States output the memory is high, close to a unit root, and a long-memory forecaster beats standard benchmarks at longer horizons. The paper studies real output only, is careful about what can and cannot be identified, and reports where the short-memory benchmark still wins.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER31 pp

The Firm Boundary as a Channel Comparison: Organisation, Reorganisation, and the Machine Member

Avishek Bhandari

Why do firms exist at all, instead of buying and selling everything through the market? Coase said that using prices is itself costly. This paper treats that cost as a rate of moving information and rebuilds the firm's boundary as a simple contest between two ways to coordinate: a shared internal channel, or separate market prices. A group of tightly linked activities becomes a firm when coordinating them internally is cheaper. The same idea explains the firm's internal hierarchy, how firms reorganise and sometimes never settle, and how rising machine capability rotates the boundary towards prediction-heavy work. A reproducible illustration, plus a real input-output network, shows the mechanisms at work. It demonstrates the ideas rather than testing them, and is careful about which conclusions the data can and cannot support.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER27 pp

Technology as Operator Drift: The Law of Motion of a Recovered Production Structure

Avishek Bhandari

How should we measure technology? Growth accounting treats it as an unexplained leftover; growth theory posits it as a stock of productivity or ideas. This paper treats technology instead as the law of motion of a recovered structure of production, an operator read from how activity moves together. Technical progress is that operator's drift between windows. The drift splits into a part the data pin down, which directions of the structure rise and fall, and a part they leave open, the operator-level Solow residual. The direction of change is identified; the cardinal number, total factor productivity, is not identified as a structural level. The paper gives the human-plus-machine agent a bounded-capacity form and places a general machine intelligence at an unreachable limit. A reproducible numerical illustration demonstrates the method and is not an empirical test.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER18 pp

Beyond Hulten under Ignorance: The Cumulant Hierarchy of Identification in a Recovered Production Network

Avishek Bhandari

When one industry stumbles, how much does the whole economy feel it? Economists increasingly recover the web of who-buys-from-whom not from accounting tables but from how industries move together over time. This paper maps what that comovement can and cannot reveal. It proves that the nonlinear part of propagation, the curvature that amplifies large shocks and skews output into fat tails, cannot be read from the comovement at all, because it depends on a substitution elasticity the data never carry. But the sign of that effect, whether large shocks are amplified or damped, does surface one step further out, in the third-order comovement, under symmetric shocks. A small reproducible numerical example illustrates the results; it demonstrates the theory rather than testing it empirically.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER17 pp

Growth in the Age of Intelligent Machines: Identified Regimes and Refused Arrivals

Avishek Bhandari

Modern economies increasingly run on machines that learn, not just people. Does the theory of long-run growth survive when some agents are built rather than born, and can the record tell us anything new? This paper treats an economy's structure as a network recovered from how its growth rates move together. From such data the direction and broad speed of long-run growth can be read off, but finer detail cannot. The central finding is an asymmetry: whether growth is steady, slowing, or accelerating towards a runaway singularity can be identified, but the date of any such takeoff cannot. Machines change the data, not what the data can reveal. The paper proves these limits and illustrates them in a worked economy; it forecasts no growth rate and dates no singularity.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER28 pp

Growth under Ignorance: Balanced Growth as a Perron Eigenray and the Identified Content of a Recovered Production Network

Avishek Bhandari

Standard growth theory treats the economy as a single stock of capital, drawn towards a steady state. This paper treats it as a production network, reading balanced growth as the leading eigenvalue and eigenvector of the production operator: the growth rate and the proportions that sustain it, with efficient paths bending onto that direction, the turnpike. Yet from the joint movement of growth rates alone, one firmly recovers the dominant direction and which sectors matter most, but not the input coefficients, growth-accounting weights, or total factor productivity, which observationally identical economies leave spread across an interval. The paper proves this and illustrates it on an exact two-sector example; it runs no empirical test. On this reading the Solow residual measures what such data cannot recover about the sources of growth.

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ARTIFICIAL THINKING CAPACITY AS A FACTOR
Machine-Capital & Intelligent Machines

The frontier claim. Machine-capital as the artificial twin of human capital, an accumulable, ownable stock of thinking capacity; its efficiency-fragility tension; its optimal regulation through a spectral externality; and labour recast as adaptive energy allocation.

WORKING PAPER26 pp

Machine-Capital: Accumulable Capacity, the Optimisation-Belief Wedge: and the Efficiency-Fragility Tension

Avishek Bhandari

Economics cast the machine as a substitute for labour. This paper casts it differently. Machine-capital is the artificial twin of human capital, an accumulable, ownable stock of artificial thinking capacity. More of it sharpens everyone's choices and raises efficiency. But machines optimise given beliefs; they do not make beliefs correct, so where learning is unstable more capacity can entrench the wrong model. Because everyone leans on the same machine judgement, inference aligns and dependence concentrates onto one channel that can carry a self-sustaining shock. Efficiency and fragility then grow from a single source and cannot be prised apart by policy, and the safeguard meant to govern machine-driven action lapses as fragility peaks. The paper proves this tension and warns; it offers no remedy, its data illustrating the pattern without testing the mechanism.

Read abstract →In preparation
WORKING PAPER25 pp

The Optimal Regulation of Machine-Capital: Spectral Externalities and the Limits of Certification

Avishek Bhandari

When firms and investors rely on the same artificial reasoning tools, they think alike, and markets increasingly move together. That coupling is a systemic risk no adopter pays for, so the market over-adopts near a fragility edge where the social cost explodes. The fix is a tax tied to a well-measured index of that coupling, its spectral radius, because the risky basket cannot be measured reliably enough to regulate. The twist: the check that licenses intervention is most permissive when danger is greatest, so passing it is necessary but not sufficient. Near the edge a precautionary cap beats a price, and an externally enforced rule beats discretion. The paper pins down the direction and shape, not the level, and its data section illustrates rather than tests the mechanism.

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WORKING PAPER17 pp

Labour as Adaptive Energy Allocation: The Worker as a Finite-Capacity Channel and the: Recovered Wage Structure

Avishek Bhandari

Labour is the only factor of production that is also a person. This paper treats the worker as an agent of limited capacity dividing effort across competing uses, and reads the wage from how the labour market moves together, not from an assumed structure. Effort follows a soft, probability-weighted rule: the textbook competitive supply is the extreme of unlimited capacity, and pure custom the opposite extreme. From how the market's parts move together, the paper firmly pins down the broad structure (overall matching strength, the ranking of sectors, and the direction and sign of shifts in the labour share), but not the fine detail (which worker meets which job, the exact labour share, or any single bargained wage). A worked example (an illustration, not a real-data test) shows how strong the signal must be for recovery. It settles what can and cannot be identified; it does not forecast.

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ADMISSIBLE INTERVENTION · REFUSAL AS OPTIMUM
Regulation, Policy & Viability

The normative capstone. Act only on identified directions and refuse the unidentified, with refusal proved an optimum; steer the dominant mode with zero worst-case regret; transmit policy through the recovered operator; and bound the whole enterprise by viability and recoverability.

WORKING PAPER24 pp

Refusal as an Optimum: Robust Regulation of a Recovered Dependence Operator under a Per-Coordinate Entropy Budget

Avishek Bhandari

How much should a regulator trust a statistical map of a market before acting on it, when most of it is barely pinned down? A companion study recovers the map as an operator whose leading strength marks where a rational bubble can form and certifies which parts the data support. This paper places that operator inside a robust control problem, sizing caution direction by direction with the same test that decides what the data can claim. The best cautious action shrinks as a direction is less identified and hits zero where it is unidentified, so declining to act there is an optimum, not a veto. A mirror case shows caution can instead sharpen action, so the refusal is specific. On eighteen global equity indices it acts on the one identified direction and refuses the rest, without testing the control rule.

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WORKING PAPER23 pp

Scale-Dependent Monetary Transmission with a Recovered Dependence Operator: A Heterogeneous-Agent Model with an Identification Boundary

Avishek Bhandari

How do interest rate changes reach households, and does the hidden web of dependence across markets matter? This paper builds a two-asset macroeconomic model in which that dependence is not assumed but recovered from data, and it is careful to use only what the data can actually support. The strength of market comovement is measurable and rises sharply in the 2008 crisis and the pandemic while staying calm in normal times, with little reaction to routine policy moves. The direction of influence, who moves whom, cannot be pinned down and is used only as a regime signal, never as a causal channel. Getting the dependence wrong carries a welfare cost. The findings are coincident readings of stress, not forecasts.

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WORKING PAPER9 pp

The Viability of an Adaptive Economy: A viability functional, and why recoverability is its boundary

Avishek Bhandari

When is an economy that keeps learning and changing still a system we can hope to keep going? This paper poses that as a question of viability: the largest set of states from which the economy can be kept inside safe limits forever, using only the interventions the data actually support. The main finding is that survival hinges on recoverability, whether comovement data still reveal enough of the economy's dependence structure to steer it. When that structure erodes, the economy becomes unsteerable and fails at a sharp threshold, even before any visible limit is crossed. The results are mathematical theorems, not an empirical test; the analysis illustrates rather than measures, and treats recoverability as the binding constraint by assumption.

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WORKING PAPER19 pp

Optimal Policy under Partial Identification: Admissible Intervention, Spectral Steering, and Robustness to Non-Identification

Avishek Bhandari

When economists design policy, they usually assume they know the economy's structure. But a structure inferred from data is only partly pinned down: some features are firm, others the data cannot resolve. The safe response, this paper argues, is a discipline: act only on the features the data fix, and steer the system's dominant mode through a single reliably identified number, without adjusting any individual link the data leave ambiguous. The main theorem shows that a policy built this way performs identically across every structure the data cannot tell apart, so it carries no regret, while a policy that reaches for the ambiguous parts can. Everything is shown in a small, fully worked example; the paper proves identification and robustness rather than testing the policy on real data.

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PEER-REVIEWED · WAVELET & FRACTAL CONNECTIVITY
Antecedents: Long Memory & Multiscale Market Structure

The seven peer-reviewed papers, 2020 to 2023, that seeded the programme: wavelet and fractal connectivity, multivariate long memory, time-varying interdependence, and time-frequency analysis of markets and climate. The empirical lineage from which the recovered-operator idea grew.

INSTRUMENTS & COMPUTATION
Methods & the Research Engine

The open computational substrate behind these results: an AI-augmented engine that runs publication-grade financial econometrics in the browser and regenerates the headline figures on demand.

arXiv · openecon.EM

Econstellar: An Open-Source AI-Augmented Research Engine for Computational Financial Econometrics

Avishek Bhandari

Turning a promising economic idea into a credible empirical finding is, in practice, an expensive undertaking: it demands a great deal of specialised computation, and the results are seldom released in a form that others can check or build upon. Econstellar is our response. It is an open, publicly served research engine that runs publication-grade financial econometrics from an ordinary web browser and explains what the results mean, so that a reader does not merely read a finding but can re-run it, vary its inputs, and trace exactly how it was produced. Three choices give the system its character. The heavy computation is placed on the processor that suits it, rather than forced onto hardware ill-matched to the task, which is much of the reason analysis of this kind is so rarely served to the public. An artificial-intelligence assistant selects and interprets the analyses but never originates a number, so every quantity it reports is a real computation the reader can reproduce. And the engine a visitor exercises is the same code that produced the figures in our published research. We expose seventeen econometric methods, each reported with a verified live value and reproducible at the public endpoint, computed under a single discipline: prices are treated as non-stationary and all methods are applied to returns. The system also regenerates, on demand, the headline result of an accompanying study of financial contagion, from the package that generated it. The platform is the working core of an active research programme spanning three software releases and three preprints, and it is available now, free and open-source, at a live public address. Our aim is a simple one: to shorten the distance between a research claim and the moment another person can independently verify it.

Avishek Bhandari

Dr. Avishek Bhandari is an Assistant Professor at the School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Management, IIT Bhubaneswar, working on macroeconomic and financial networks: how markets adapt, interconnect and communicate across space and time, from network-based market-efficiency frameworks to cryptocurrency ecosystem dynamics and the information flows that drive economic contagion.

School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, India · avishekb@iitbbs.ac.in