System monitor · evolution semigroup
The Observatory
A daily cross-market connectivity index: the mean of 272 directed
KSG transfer entropies across G20 equity markets, recomputed every night on settled real closes and
appended — never interpolated, never fabricated. Every point traces to its computation.
loading the live series…
Daily series — every point clickable
GET /api/sri/history · trading-day axis · click (or Tab + Enter) a point for its provenance
Latest directed network
GET /api/sri/network · strongest directed transfer-entropy edges on the latest vintage
edge width ∝ transfer entropy · arrow = direction of information flow · hover an edge for the exact TE
What this index is — and is not.
- It is a connectivity index — the cross-market mean of directed KSG/Frenzel-Pompe transfer
entropies (k=4, lag=1, 250-trading-day window) on log-returns. It is not the validated MCPFM
systemic-risk index: no AUC claim transfers (MCPFM's AUC 0.915 US/COVID · 0.581 India is a separate,
not-yet-reproduced result — an honest hole, not a feature of this page).
- Russia (IMOEX) is excluded from every live vintage — it has no Yahoo source. Live points are
17 markets / 272 directed pairs. NaN means absent, never imputed.
- Vintage flags: South Africa uses a Top-40 proxy; Australia's feed needed a timezone correction
(validated ρ 0.26 → 0.99). The first point (2026-03-18, 0.00849) comes from the 18-market / 306-pair
static research panel — the series carries a labeled regime note, not a silent splice.
- The nightly tick appends only settled real closes (identity on holidays; composition on
catch-up — e.g. 2026-06-09 landed on the 06-11 tick after Yahoo's close-settlement lag). A missing
evening is a fact about the data vendor, recorded honestly, not papered over.